- The US economy doesn’t need stimulus in the next 30 days, Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday.
- “I don’t think we need stimulus in the next 30 days for the economy to stay afloat. There is no risk of a double dip recession in the next 30 days if we don’t get the stimulus done,” Mike Wilson said.
- He thinks the S&P 500 will fall to 3,100 in the “worst case”, if a stimulus deal has not been met.
- US president Donald Trump signaled an end to stimulus talks on Tuesday, but made an apparent U-turn hours later and tweeted urging lawmakers to approve more stimulus.
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The US economy doesn’t need more fiscal stimulus and faces no risk of a “double dip recession”, even if a deal doesn’t get passed in the next 30 days before the US election, Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” Tuesday.
“I don’t think we need stimulus in the next 30 days for the economy to stay afloat. There is no risk of a double dip recession in the next 30 days if we don’t get the stimulus done,” Mike Wilson, who is chief US equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said.
“The main message I want to leave your listeners with is that we still think stimulus is coming. It is now just a timing question before or after the election. Our best guess is probably after the election,” Wilson said.
Wilson said the S&P 500 will fall to 3,100 in the “worst-case”. This is around 8% lower compared to Wednesday’s close of 3360.95. The target is in line with Morgan Stanley’s broader S&P 500 target range of 3,100-3,550 for the rest of the year.
US president Donald Trump signaled an end to stimulus negotiations between Democrats and Republicans until after the election in a tweet on Tuesday that triggered a drop on the stock market. He later urged lawmakers to approve $1,200 stimulus checks for American taxpayers, small business aid, and direct assistance to airlines to prevent layoffs.
Trump’s tweets followed comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who said in a speech earlier on Tuesday the economy needed more federal spending.
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“The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business,” Trump wrote on Twitter, adding he would “sign now.”
Democrats and Republicans have been gridlocked over a second fiscal package since July.
The two parties appeared to make some progress in recent days and Democrat-controlled Congress passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus plan last week, but the bill still needs to get through the Republican-led Senate.
Trump’s spate of contradictory tweets cast fresh uncertainty over whether dialogue between both parties will resume before the US election on November 3.
Asked whether he still expects a rapid V-shaped economic recovery for the US, Wilson said: “It definitely takes a little edge off the V. What happens is the V becomes a little flattened out, we have seen the economic data start to flatten out a bit.”
“It is still very supportive of the recovery story. It is just a delay,” he said.
“We were bullish on the market, but I didn’t think we would get to [around] 3,600 [for the S&P 500] by Labour Day. So taking a little wind out of the sail is not such a bad thing,” Wilson said.