Even though we’re still a few hours away from the official announcement of Samsung’s “next big thing(s)”, the Galaxy Note 20 duo and Z Fold 2 5G have stopped being a secret a pretty long time ago. What may seem a little harder to predict is exactly how popular these ultra-high-end smartphones will prove both in the short and long run.
That’s because the mobile industry is in an exceptionally volatile and unstable place right now due primarily to all the uncertainty still associated with the coronavirus situation in many key markets around the world, US included. Samsung appears to have been hit particularly hard by the globally shrinking demand for high-priced devices like the Galaxy S20 series
, opening the door to a new leader in shipments in the budget-conscious Huawei
Add in the equation the highly anticipated October launch of Apple’s first-ever 5G-capable iPhones
, which are widely expected to start at almost shockingly low prices
, and you could definitely understand why industry analysts and market research companies would be reluctant to make any firm predictions regarding the success (or lack thereof) of Samsung’s hot new flagships.
But according to Yonhap News
, one of the industry’s most reliable data analytics firms is in fact prepared to do just that, forecasting some… interesting (and specific) numbers for the imminent Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G and Note 20 series.
The good news
While it’s perhaps not fair to compare what looks like a significantly more refined and mature product with a profoundly experimental and deeply flawed one at its core, today’s Counterpoint Research prophecy for the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G
strongly suggests its initial production volumes will not be quite as constrained as rumored a couple of months ago
That’s because Samsung
could end the year with around 500,000 Z Fold 2 unit sales, which is a pretty big number for a device tipped to cost $2,000 or so
when it eventually becomes available. That’s likely to happen at some point in mid-September, mind you, making the aforementioned figure that much more encouraging, as it would equate to a little over 140,000 monthly sales through the end of 2020.
The not-so-good news
While the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G is the epitome of technical innovation and design evolution in a time when the smartphone industry badly needs both those things to move forward, the Note 20
and Note 20 Ultra 5G
look… awfully familiar.
If anything, Samsung might be happy if the Note 20 and Note 20 Ultra indeed combine to sell 8.5 million units worldwide in their “debut year”, which would represent a relatively small decline from the 9 million sales generated by the Note 10 and Note 10+.
Granted, that was itself a lower number than the 9.6 million units estimated for the Galaxy Note 9
, but given the current economic climate and the much bigger drop in popularity experienced by the S20 family in comparison with its forerunners, 8.5 million would be a fairly decent result. Not great, not terrible.