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Stock market outlook: S&P 500 may rise 11% if Trump vaccine plan works


  • S&P 500 can explode a further 11% and touch 3,900 before year end if Trump’s revolutionary vaccine plan gets recognized, a CEO of an online trading platform said. 
  • Anthony Denier, CEO of Webull told Business Insider: “I would predict the S&P to flirt with 3,900.”
  • Trump announced this week the White House is mulling an emergency use authorization for UK-based AstraZeneca’s experimental vaccine before the November election. 
  • The S&P 500 hit multiple record highs this week following the news, and closed above 3,500 on Friday.
  • But veteran strategist Ed Yardeni told Business Insider that while he is still bullish on the index, most vaccine news has already been priced in.
  • “Its already gone to the moon on a rocket ship,” he said. 
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

The S&P 500 could balloon 11% from its current explosive level before the end of the 2020 if US President Trump’s revolutionary vaccine plan gets realized before the November election, according to the CEO of a trading platform. 

Anthony Denier, CEO of trading platform Webull, told Business Insider: “Social sentiment aside, if Trump succeeds in getting a treatment to the US that results in 35% less deaths due to COVID-19, and we continue to see infection rates decline, then this would give him a strong tailwind into the election for another four year term.”

“I would predict the S&P to flirt with 3,900,” he added. Climbing to 3,900 would represent an increase of some 11% from Friday’s closing price.

The S&P 500 has bounced back from hell after touching coronavirus lows in March. It hit a new record of 3,508 points on Friday, gaining all week after it emerged Tuesday that Trump is mulling an emergency use authorization for an early stage coronavirus vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca in the UK.

Such an action would bypass regulatory standards and potentially introduce a vaccine to the US market before November’s presidential election.

The S&P 500 index has bounced 53% since touching coronavirus lows in March. 

A raft of factors has contributed to the index’s spectacular recovery. Central banks across the world rolled out stimulus packages to help companies survive the pandemic. This has left interest rates and yields at rock bottom, making the stock market an attractive place to make money. 

Investors have been very sensitive to all types of news, particularly on anything related to the likelihood of a vaccine being developed in the near future. 

Separately, the Food and Drug Administration issued emergency authorization for using convalescent plasma to treat COVID-19.

While Denier thinks the S&P 500 could touch 3,900 should Trump successfully bring a vaccine to the US pre-election, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni is less convinced the vaccine news can move markets higher, adding that any news on such front is likely already priced into the S&P 500 index. 

Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research told Business Insider: “I said before we’re going to go to 3,500 before the end of the year and then 3,800 next year. But the market keeps getting to the levels well ahead of schedule.” 

“If this vaccine use just came out of the blue and we hadn’t had a lot of other encouraging news on the vaccines for the past several months, the market would be going to the moon on a rocket ship,” Yardeni said. “But it’s already gone to the moon on a rocket ship.”

Yardeni said Trump’s “very vague plan” was simply an effort to ramp up as much positive news in the week of the Republican convention. 

As long as the perception is that the global economy is recovering, then markets can reach 3,800 earlier than next year, he said. 

But the index shooting up to these levels on vaccine news alone is unlikely, he concluded. 

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