As developers continue to focus on recovering the volumes lost amidst the pandemic and gaining a foothold in their respective markets, prices are expected to be largely range-bound across most of the markets in the short-term. This rationalisation combined with reduced home loan rates has further improved affordability in the residential market.
“Developers will keep new launches under control and will focus on project completion. We do not expect prices to go up since developers are trying to bring back sales volume by offering attractive pricing to buyers,” said Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research & REIS (India), JLL.
Developers are also offering attractive freebies including payment schemes such as no EMIs for a year, no stamp duty and so on to attract homebuyers who pressed ‘pause’ in the last few months. This has led to a reduction in ‘effective prices.
“The real estate sector overall has not shown significant price increase over the last few years despite inflation and rising material and regulatory changes. “We have been able to show price appreciation in some projects and some micro markets where demand is very strong. This applies to both new launches as well as different stages of construction completion. This trend was getting stronger throughout the second half of calendar 2020 as well as 2021 until the second wave caused some business disruptions,” said Pavitra Shankar executive director at
In 2021, residential sales are expected to be back to 2019 levels or higher with mid and affordable segments driving the sales traction. Suburbs and extended suburbs will see more demand because these locations offer bigger houses within budget which provide a conducive environment for work from home.
“The covid pandemic turmoil made the situation worse from bad. The system reboot led to piled up inventory, perils of economic slowdown led to subdued demand, liquidity crisis and muted investments. We don’t foresee any price hike in the short term, but as the economy normalcy resumes with an amplified vaccination drive across the nation the industry will witness bullish growth. As the economic sentiments shift in high gear, real estate investment will offer steady rental income and long term capital appreciation, and the resultant growth in demand will impact price-points,” said Niranjan Hiranandani, National President, NAREDCO.
According to JLL, Q1 2021, sales of residential units continued on an upward trajectory. Sales, at the overall level increased by 17% on a sequential basis. The sustained growth in sales presents clear signs of demand and buyer confidence coming back to the market. This has been on the back of historically low home loan interest rates, stagnant residential prices, lucrative payment plans and freebies from developers and government incentives such as the reduction of stamp duty in states like Maharashtra and Karnataka (for affordable housing).
“The prices in these markets have been relatively stable without being subject to rapid fluctuations. This is because most of the markets that we operate in have not been speculative. Gauging the prevalent trends, it appears that a faster decline in unsold inventory and spaced-out new launches might contribute to the prices increasing in the distant future but not immediately. Additionally, post-RERA, established realty players have gained a larger market size. This has helped ensure stability in prices because most of these players are multi-city entities,” said Ashish R Puravankara, MD, Puravankara Ltd.
The first quarter of 2021 witnessed new launches of 33,953 residential units, a jump of 27% over the last quarter of 2020. This being said, it is important to note that new launches are still at 84% when compared to the pre-COVID levels of Q1 2020, mentioned by JLL.