Home > Finance > market outlook: Don’t expect a rip-roaring rally over the next month: Crossbridge Capital

market outlook: Don’t expect a rip-roaring rally over the next month: Crossbridge Capital


Overall if there is a global growth, then that is going to help the emerging market, says Manish Singh, CIO.

The Indian markets are pretty much maintaining and building on those gains. But where do you think we are headed given the kind of uncertainties that we are still seeing in the markets that still have not faded away at all?

If you look at the June month and if you look at S&P, it is practically flat compared to June 3. You had a four-week period over which you had a week of plus 6%, minus 9%, plus 7%; so we are flat. So what we have seen over the last four weeks is that we have built up a base of how high the S&P can safely be and not have a big downside and for me that level has been 3,100 as we have been having this conversation for a few weeks now.

The case for the stocks to go higher is there. However, the summer months are going to be more of a sideways market because you still have new cases increasing in the US. The key parameter of the number of deaths are not increasing which is very encouraging but one can never be sure and one will just keep waiting and watching unless you really see a big jump in macro data GDP wise. The data which even Bank of England has pointed out is showing that the recovery is getting stronger and the downside in the economy is not as bad as people expected. But again, I see these things more as a sign that there is nothing to sell. You should hold your position and you should not look to raise any cash. But I am still not of the opinion that you are going to see a rip-roaring rally over the next month. But I still maintain that you will see S&P highs towards the latter part of this year or end of Q3 and Q4. So I am very positive and constructive but I am not making a super bullish case at this time.

It is a collision of the bears and bulls and there will be a stalemate for 12 months. Given what is happening in the Indian markets, we are reclaiming such important and psychologically crucial levels. Could this once again be a time for emerging markets? Do you see the flows coming back into EMs?

The emerging market case has to be made up by what is happening in the emerging market in terms of government actions. The number of cases are still increasing in India, Brazil and South Africa. I think emerging markets have to answer that. However, overall if there is a global growth and global growth accelerates, then that is going to help the emerging market irrespective of whatever the local policies are. In wake of that, you are going to see an increase in emerging market equities as well as have new highs on S&P and move in the European market; so that case is intact. Anything in global growth which does better is going to help emerging markets. For emerging markets to go higher on its own accord is more dependent on local policies.

In terms of Europe, we are seeing good signs and we have seen a good rally because the unemployment rate in Germany is growing. So Germany which has been this flag bearer for austerity policies is not going to be austere and everyone is going to be allowed to spend and that is positive. When these spendings happen, then obviously it is going to kick start many parts of the economy which are not doing very well. Same is the case in the UK as well and in the US. You have an election year. There is no way Trump is going to have a bad economic number and bad data just cut his chances of getting re-elected. So on that basis the emerging market looks fine but emerging markets have their own underlying issues that they have to solve. But anything on a global basis should help the emerging markets as well.

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