The latest round of opinion poll has revealed that incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continues to be the most preferred choice for the post of chief minister. Yogi Adityanath continues to be much ahead of his competitors- Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati and Priyanka Gandhi in the race for top job in the state.
Other key political players in the state — the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress are not in a position to dislodge the Yogi Adityanath government in 2022, the poll revealed.
- On the basis of the early projection, BJP is expected to see an increase of 0.4% in the percentage of votes.
- On the other hand, SP is projected to gain 6.6% of votes in the upcoming polls. Meanwhile, BSP can witness a significant setback with a decline in vote percentage (-6.5%) and the Congress (INC) is also expected to lose some of its shares as compared to 2017 (-1.2%).
Number of Seats
In terms of the range of seats, the BJP is projected to win 259 to 267 seats and SP can secure 109 to 117 seats, followed by BSP with 12 to 16, Congress with 3 to 7, and others with 6 to 10.
- The ruling BJP is expected to grab 41.8 per cent of vote share in the upcoming assembly polls in the state.
- The saffron party has been continuously maintained it vote share of around 41 per cent in the state; in 2017 Assembly elections BJP had garnered 41.4 per cent of the votes polled in the state.
As for other key political players in the state while the vote share of SP is expected to witness a jump of 6.6 per cent from 23.6 per cent in 2017 to 30.2 per cent in 2022, BSP’s vote share is likely to witness a slump of 6.5 per cent from 22.2 per cent in 2017 to 15.7 per cent in 2022. Country’s grand old party — the Congress, out of power in the state since 1989 is expected to get 5.1 per cent of the votes, the party had secured 6.3 per cent votes in 2017.
Translated into seats, BJP+ is likely to grab 263 seats in 2022 Assembly polls. Though BJP and its allies will witness a dip of 62 seats from the figure of 325 seats they had won in 2017, the alliance is expected to cross the majority figure comfortably.
The Samajwadi Party, emerging as main contender is expected to improve its tally from 48 seats in 2017 to 113 seats this time. The survey further shows that the Bahujan Samaj Party is continuously losing the political ground in the state as the party is expected to get 14 seats this time, it had won just 19 seats in 2017. Congress will be reduced to single digit figure of 5 seats.
The survey data revealed that there isn’t much anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as 40.4 per cent of the respondents said that Yogi Adityanath is their preferred choice for the post of Chief Minister in upcoming assembly elections. During the survey, while 27.5 per cent opined in favour of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav for the top job in the state, 14.6 per cent of the respondents said they waant to see BSP supremo Mayawati as next chief minister.
Interestingly, only 3.2 per cent of those interviewed during the survey wanted Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi to be the next chief minister of the state.
Notably, during the survey, a large proportion of respondents expressed satisfaction with the performance of BJP government in the state. While 45.3 per cent of the respondents said that they were very much satisfied with the performance of the BJP government in the state, 19.9 per cent opined that they satisfied to some extent. 33.7 per cent of those interviewed during the survey said they were not satisfied with the performance of the state government.
As for the performance of the Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, while 43.6% of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the performance of incumbent chief minister, 18.1% said they were satisfied to some extent with his performance; 37.0% of the respondents stated that they were not satisfied the ruling chief minister of the state.
Notably, a large proportion of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with sitting MLAs of their constituencies. During the survey, while 43.8% of the respondents said they were not satisfied at all with the performance of sitting legislators of their constituencies, only 29.0% stated that they were very much satisfied with their work; 20.9% opined that they were satisfied to some extent.
The survey data revealed that unemployment and spiraling inflation are key issues of concern for the electorate at the moment. Out of those interviewed, while 38.6 of the respondents said that unemployment was the main issue for them, 25.7% felt that price rise is the main issue affecting them.
The sample for the poll is 81,006 in five states covering 690 assembly seats. This State Poll is part of the largest and definitive independent sample survey tracker series carried out in India over the last 22 years, conducted by independent international polling agency CVoter, a globally renowned name in the field of Socio-Economic research.
May 2009 onwards, the CVoter Tracker has been carried out each and every week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all States in UTs in India, with a target sample size of 3,000 samples each wave. The average response rate is 55%. Starting 1st January 2019, C Voter is carrying the tracker on DAILY basis, using the rollover sample of 7 days (last 6 days + today) for tracker analysis.