The seven-day rolling average of daily cases in the country stood at 47,216 on Thursday, nearly half of what it was when the graph peaked on September 17 at 93,735 cases. In other words, the average number of cases detected over the past week was around 50% less than the average at the greatest point of the pandemic.
The fall in the seven-day average graph of daily deaths has been even sharper. Deaths peaked at 1,176 on September 19. By October 29, the number had fallen by more than 50% to 543. All numbers are based on TOI’s database collated from daily figures released by state governments.
Both daily cases and fatalities are currently at levels seen in July. The seven-day average of cases currently is comparable to the numbers on July 27, when the count was 46,760. From there on, it took 52 days for Covid-19 cases to double to their peak on September 17. By contrast, the subsequent fall to 50% of the peak has taken 42-43 days.
In the case of daily fatalities, the current number is at the same level as it was on July 15, when the seven-day rolling average was 538. This means that it took 65 days for the daily Covid-19 toll to rise from that level to its peak on September 19. The fall has taken 41 days.
That deaths in the country peaked just two days after the highest rise in cases is surprising — as is the sharper decline subsequently — given that there’s usually a lag of around 10-15 days between trends in cases and fatalities. Whether this points to low detection of cases or low recording of deaths isn’t very clear.
Meanwhile, fresh infections in the country continued to fall, with 48,496 cases recorded on Friday, a slight decrease from the previous day’s tally of 49,070. Daily cases have crossed 50,000 just once this week — on Wednesday, when 50,224 new infections were detected. The total Covid-19 caseload in the country has risen to 80,87,833. Delhi was among the few states where fresh cases registered a rise on Friday. The capital reported its highest single-day count of 5,891 cases, the fourth straight day of record numbers.
The daily death numbers have held steady over the past few days. On Friday, 557 fatalities were recorded, the highest in six days, although the rise hasn’t been sharp. The total toll from the virus in India currently stands at 1,21,632.
Maharashtra reported a slight increase in new Covid-19 cases and a decline in the fatalities on Friday. A total of 6,190 cases and 127 deaths were reported taking the total caseload to 16,72,858 and the total fatalities to 43,837. With 1,145 COvid-19 cases added to the tally in Mumbai on Friday, the city’s total caseload since March shot up to 2.56 lakh so far. The civic update on Friday added 32 Covid deaths, taking the toll to 10,261 so far.